Week 4 Preview: Terrell vs. Aubrey
The preamble of the Texas high school football season comes to a close in Week 4 as the 5A/6A schools get going next week. Not to diminish the the 4A schools (and lower), but a lot of attention across the state will shift.
But let's focus on what's in front of us now. Terrell and Aubrey. For Terrell, this is the last warmup game before district play. For Aubrey, it is still in the middle of the pre-district schedule.
Terrell (1-2) is coming off its second straight loss after a 9-point loss on the road to Tyler Chapel Hill. It will be the Tigers' fourth straight road game to open the season, and they have another next week. It's a tough start for Terrell, to say the least.
In its last two games, Terrell has struggled protecting the ball with a combined seven turnovers to just three takeaways. A minus-4 turnover difference will not win you a lot of games, so this will need to be turned around.
This all starts with the quarterback play. Quarterback Kayne Nix has struggled a bit in the first three games, completing just 48.7 percent of his passes with five touchdowns and four interceptions.
In Terrell's only win, it dominated on the ground by racking up 491 rushing yards and completely stifled Wills Point, holding it to 82 yards of offense.
Aubrey (3-0) is off to a hot start in 2020, opening the season with three dominating wins - the lowest margin of victory being 23 points in Week 2 against Whitesboro.
Twice, Aubrey has eclipsed the 50-point mark and have held its opponents to 31 total points this year. With that point production has also come with a lot of yards - to the tune of 542 yards per game. The bulk of the offense this year has come from the ground attack as the Chaparrals are averaging nearly 400 yards rushing.
Like Terrell, though, Aubrey has been hit with the turnover bug with four in three games. Against Whitesboro in Week 2, Aubrey forced six turnovers, which shows the defense's ability to completely shut down opponents.
Previewing the Game
The last time I previewed a game, I went against what the computers at TexasFootball said. This time around, the computers see what I see, having Aubrey as 16-point favorites. Here are the stats entering this game.
Terrell is +25 in points in 2020, but taking away Week 1 that number flips to -28, and the big reason is the uneven play at QB and the turnovers. For Terrell to have a shot against Aubrey, it has to take care of the ball while also getting Aubrey to commit turnovers.
When Aubrey gets the ball, it scores, and then it shuts down opponents. It can win in a shootout and it can win in a defensive struggle, so this is where Terrell has to keep the game. Getting into a track meet with Aubrey can be a recipe for disaster.
Prediction: Aubrey 45, Terrell 24
Follow @iamspeters for live updates of this game.
I was MIA last week in producing a preview for Van Alstyne and Anna. Luckily I didn't, because I would have been wrong in what I thought of the outcome.
This year, I've been doing picks with friends on the Star-Telegram.
Week 1: 8-2
Week 2: 9-1 (9-2; adding the Lake Worth-Sanger preview)
Week 3: 10-0
My picks for Week 4 are bolded below:
You can see all the picks here: https://www.star-telegram.com/sports/dfwvarsity/prep-football/article245750015.html