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State Finals DFW #TXHSFB Preview
Dec 14, 2019
It's championship week. We've already had three state champs crowned (Blum and Richland Springs in 1A; Refugio in 2A DI) and by the end of each day, three more will hoist the UIL State Championship trophy - a total of 12 state champs.
Here are the final Texas high school football previews of the 2019 season.
<h4 rel="noopener noreferrer"></h4>
<p class="">Prediction Update: It was a 7-2 week last week, as I was wrong about Lone Star beating Denton Ryan and Canadian topping Gunter. It brings my season record 378-129 (.746), which means even if I go 6-0 this week, I cannot get to the 75% prediction rate.</p>
6A Division I State Championship: Duncanville vs. North Shore
<img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMjE5MjU0Ny9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYxNDA2Mjg4NX0.ly1pawiaztSWNGONmCw79UbW62Hj6mabJ_7FTihxIU0/img.png?width=980" id="9572f" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="5ad933fa98e2eac4d004901bab7bd224" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image" />
<h4 rel="noopener noreferrer">Game Details</h4><p rel="noopener noreferrer">
<strong>Time:</strong> 3:00 p.m.<br>
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<strong>Day:</strong> Saturday, December 21</p><p rel="noopener noreferrer">
<strong>Location:</strong> AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
</p><p rel="noopener noreferrer">
<strong>Previous meetings:</strong> North Shore def. Ducanville 41-36 (2018 6A DI state finals)</p><h4>Previewing Duncanville (15-0)</h4><p>The big news for Duncanville is the loss of quarterback Ja'Quinden Jackson, who suffered a torn ACL in last week's loss to Rockwall. It's devastating on two fronts for Duncanville because it happened with the Panthers well ahead in the game and it will have to rely on a freshman quarterback Chris Parson.</p><p>Parson's isn't new to playing this year, but he's only seen time in garbage time as Duncanville has dominated most, if not all of its opponents this year.</p><p>This means the strategy for Duncanville will be to rely heavily on its run game, led by Trysten Smith as well as Cameron Gray and Roderick Daniels. Parson's can scamper, too, but it would be hard to imagine a lot of designed runs for the young quarterback.</p><p>Duncanville is gunning for its second state title, the fist since 1998.</p><h4>Previewing North Shore (14-1)</h4><p>After a season-opening loss to Katy, North Shore has rattled off 14 straight thanks to its 5-star running back stud, Zachary Evans. Despite having an ACT exam to take last week, Evans showed up in the second half against Lake Travis to run for 176 yards.</p><p>North Shore has completely dominated its opponents as last week's 11-point win was the closet game it had faced in 12 games since a 24-21 win over Westfield.</p><p>North Shore is still a strong defensive team with three shutouts this year and three other games with seven points or less.</p><p>North Shore is in search of its fourth state title and is 3-0 in state championships.</p><h4>Previewing the Game</h4><p>It's the game everyone in Texas high school football wanted to see. However, with Jackson's injury, it seems to have a lost a bit of its luster.</p><p>But the game must be played regardless of who is not on the field.</p><table border="0" cellpadding="5" cellspacing="5" data-darkreader-inline-border-bottom="" data-darkreader-inline-border-left="" data-darkreader-inline-border-right="" data-darkreader-inline-border-top="" style="border-color: rgb(214, 214, 214); border-style: solid; border-width: 1px; --darkreader-inline-border-top:#3b3b3b; --darkreader-inline-border-right:#3b3b3b; --darkreader-inline-border-bottom:#3b3b3b; --darkreader-inline-border-left:#3b3b3b;" width="100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="50%">
<strong>TEAM STATS</strong>
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<td align="center" width="25%">
<strong>DUNCANVILLE</strong></td>
<td align="center" width="25%">
<strong>NORTH SHORE</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
Points Per Game
</td>
<td align="center">
46.5</td>
<td align="center">
50.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
Points Allowed Per Game
</td>
<td align="center">8.4</td>
<td align="center">
18.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
Yards Per Game
</td>
<td align="center">425.3</td>
<td align="center">
n/a</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
Yards Allowed Per Game
</td>
<td align="center">
205.6</td>
<td align="center">
329.5 (8 games) <br>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table><p>By all statistical measures, Duncanville is the better team. This isn't a DFW pride thing, but Duncanville's defense pitched five shutouts this year and allowed 7 points or fewer in four others. In only an 8-game sample, North Shore's defense has given up a lot more in comparison to Duncanville's. And the offense has been just as prolific as North Shore's (despite not having box score stats for each game) in terms of points.</p><p>But...and it's a huge but...Duncanville will have a freshman quarterback starting his first game. This isn't like Cardale Jones guiding Ohio State to the natty. This is a 14-year-old kid playing against a pretty stout defensive unit.</p><p>Had Jackson been able to play, which always looked like a long shot after viewing video footage of the hit, it might have helped. His legs are as important to the Duncanville strategy as is his passing. And for sure North Shore will be gearing its defense up to shut down the Duncanville run game.</p><p>Can it? That remains to be seen. North Shore has given up 225 or more rushing yards in three of the eight games that had stats. Only twice in those games did it hold its opponents to less than 100 yards.</p><p>The other factor is Evans. He was frustrated in his performance last year as Duncanville held him to less to 100 yards and no touchdowns. Expect a heavy dose of Evans.</p><p>Will we get the Hail Mary buzzer beater again? Probably not. Will we get a good game? Maybe early on, but having its full arsenal on hand should give North Shore the upper hand.</p><p>
<strong>Prediction: North Shore 38, Duncanville 27</strong></p><p>
Follow
<a href="https://twitter.com/iamspeters" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">@iamspeters</a> for live updates of this game.
</p>
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State Semifinals DFW #TXHSFB Preview: Part 2
Dec 13, 2019
It's the penultimate week of the Texas high school football season. TAPPS wrapped up last week - SPC many weeks ago - and we've burned through 14 weeks of UIL play.
This week is the State Semifinals as 32 teams between 6A and 2A are vying to punch their ticket to AT&T Stadium next week with four already booking trips to the state championships.
Like Thursday, we're going to do things a little differently. Instead of dropping each game preview at once and separate all the other predictions into post, we're going to go by each day, which turns our focus onto Friday's games.
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<img type="lazy-image" data-runner-src="https://assets.rebelmouse.io/eyJhbGciOiJIUzI1NiIsInR5cCI6IkpXVCJ9.eyJpbWFnZSI6Imh0dHBzOi8vYXNzZXRzLnJibC5tcy8yMjE2MzQ5OC9vcmlnaW4ucG5nIiwiZXhwaXJlc19hdCI6MTYzMzkyMzIxNH0.pOWFkYa34_GsQkG9QKZ1kdzvqscgEyLW4aKBkSBjv3Y/img.png?width=980" id="d9acb" class="rm-shortcode" data-rm-shortcode-id="3ee41a015a38b0739c317dafc31fc1c4" data-rm-shortcode-name="rebelmouse-image">
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</p><h4 rel="noopener noreferrer">Game Details</h4><p rel="noopener noreferrer">
<strong>Time:</strong> 7:00 p.m.<br>
</p><p rel="noopener noreferrer">
<strong>Day:</strong> Friday, December 13
</p><p rel="noopener noreferrer">
<strong>Location:</strong> MISD Stadium (Midlothian, Texas)
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<strong>Previous meetings:</strong> No previous meeting
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<strong>Matchup notes:</strong> 4A Division I State Semifinal<br>
</p><h4>Previewing Waco La Vega (13-1)</h4><p>
For the second straight year, Don Hyde has guided Waco La Vega into the state bracket after avenging an early-season loss to Argyle with a 24-point win last week - extending its win streak to 12. La Vega is looking for its second straight state title.
</p><p>
In last week's win, La Vega got 396 yards on the ground provided by Jar'Que Walton and Elisha Cummings, which help enable La Vega jump out to a 31-6 first quarter lead.
</p><p>
Offense has been rolling for the majority of La Vega, as seen below.<br>
</p><table border="0" cellpadding="5" cellspacing="5" style="border-top: 1px solid #d6d6d6; border-right: 1px solid #d6d6d6; border-bottom: 1px solid #d6d6d6; border-left: 1px solid #d6d6d6" width="100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="50%">
<strong>TEAM STATS</strong>
</td>
<td align="center" width="25%">
<strong>LA VEGA</strong>
</td>
<td align="center" width="25%">
<strong>OPPONENTS</strong>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
Overall Season
</td>
<td align="center">
44.9
</td>
<td align="center">
14.7
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
Pre-District
</td>
<td align="center">
42.0
</td>
<td align="center">
15.0
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
District
</td>
<td align="center">
45.3
</td>
<td align="center">
10.3
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
Playoffs
</td>
<td align="center">
49.0<br>
</td>
<td align="center">
18.8
<br>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table><p>
La Vega is wining playoff games by an average of 30 points per game but were thoroughly challenged by Melissa two rounds ago in a 45-42 win. In the other three games, the scoring average goes to 50-11.
</p><p>
Fast starts are what La Vega thrives on as it averages nearly 16 points a game in the first quarter. However, its production drops off considerably in the second quarter to less than a touchdown.
</p><p>
On the year, La Vega is 8-2 against playoff-bound teams and 7-2 against teams with winning records. The only difference between those two marks is the district win over China Spring, which did not finish with a winning record.<br>
</p><h4>Previewing Springtown (13-1)</h4><p>
Springtown enters on a seven-game win streak after dominating Dumas in the regional finals 56-39. In fact, Springtown has yet to win a game in the playoffs and this season by a single score - an average win margin of 36.5 points in those 13 games.
</p><p>
The offense is led by running back Cameron Rickett, who has racked up nearly 2,100 yards on the ground and 38 rushing scores.<br>
</p><table border="0" cellpadding="5" cellspacing="5" style="border-top: 1px solid #d6d6d6; border-right: 1px solid #d6d6d6; border-bottom: 1px solid #d6d6d6; border-left: 1px solid #d6d6d6" width="100%">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="50%">
<strong>TEAM STATS</strong>
</td>
<td align="center" width="25%">
<strong>SPRINGTOWN</strong>
</td>
<td align="center" width="25%">
<strong>OPPONENTS</strong>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
Overall Season
</td>
<td align="center">
49.9
</td>
<td align="center">
16.5
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
Pre-District
</td>
<td align="center">
46.4
</td>
<td align="center">
10.8
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
District
</td>
<td align="center">
49.2
</td>
<td align="center">
19.2
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>
Playoffs
</td>
<td align="center">
55.0
</td>
<td align="center">
20.3
<br>
</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table><p>
The Springtown defense has played extremely well this postseason, too, producing 13 takeaways in four games. In contrast, the Springtown offense has only given up the ball twice.
</p><p>
Springtown has scored 38 or more points in 12 of its 14 games in which it was 12-0 in those games and 1-1 in the two.<br>
</p><p>
Springtown is 8-1 this year against teams with winning records as well as playoff-bound teams (all the same teams). The lone hiccup was the 38-31 road loss to district mate Decatur.<br>
</p><h4>Previewing the Game</h4><p>
By all accounts, La Vega is a simple offense. The Pirates are big up front and don't do anything too fancy, and it's effective. On the flip side, Springtown likes to mix things up, score a lot and force teams to get out of their gameplan and play a similar style.
</p><p>
As noted with La Vega, the team scores a lot early but then tails off in the second quarter (a similar pattern emerges in the second half). Unlike La Vega, Springtown keeps the pressure up and high scoring for the first three quarters (1st - 13.5 points per; 2nd - 14.3 points per; 3rd - 12.7 points per).
</p><p>
That'll be tough for La Vega to contend with, even though it has shown the ability to score points in a hurry and in bunches.
</p><p>
Everything I've written previously makes it seem like I'm pulling for Springtown. It's where my heart is in this matchup (Remember: DFW > everyone), but my head pulls me in the direction of La Vega.
</p><ol class="ee-ol">
<li> La Vega is the defending state champs</li>
<li>La Vega just destroyed Argyle, which nobody saw coming</li>
<li>La Vega is favored by a touchdown or more by TexasFootball.com, Calpreps and Massey Ratings.</li>
<li>La Vega has been to the state semis in four of the previous five years going 3-1</li>
</ol><p>
<strong>Prediction: Waco La Vega 41, Springtown 35</strong>
</p><p>
Follow
<a href="https://twitter.com/iamspeters" rel="noopener noreferrer" target="_blank">@iamspeters</a> for live updates of this game.
</p>
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