Is recent Kanto success sign of changing times?

Numbers have a way of revealing changes in trends. To wit:

From 1998 to 2004, Okinawa teams won all 10 Far East High School Class AA Soccer Tournament titles; only four times did a non-Okinawa team even get one of 20 championship-match berths.

Since then, three of eight titles have been won by Kanto Plain Association of Secondary Schools teams; in fact, Kanto teams claimed seven of 16 championship match berths.

Is it a sign of the times? Have the rest of the Pacific’s teams — or Christian Academy In Japan’s boys and American School In Japan’s girls, at least — caught up to Okinawa?

Not so fast, CAJ coach Sean Collier says. Despite coaching his Knights to Class AA titles in 2005 and 2007 and to title-match berths in 2006 and last year, he feels Okinawa still reigns supreme.

"Okinawa teams have always set the bar very high. They set the standard" for the rest of the region, Collier said.

That might seem odd, given the Knights’ 8-0 record and Kanto title compared to four-time Class AA champion Kadena (12-9-1) and defending champion Kubasaki (7-7-2).

There, Collier said, is where the numbers can be misleading. CAJ’s record has come against high school foes, with a few matches against Japanese clubs and non-league "friendlies" against ASIJ and St. Mary’s.

On the other hand, many of Kadena’s and Kubasaki’s players matriculated in the Diplomats’ U-14 developmental program practice and play with Japanese and American men’s clubs year round and during the season play most of their matches against American men’s club teams.

Those aren’t fly-by-night weekend warriors doing it for a lark; many are All-Service veterans, enlisted men from African, South and Central American and European nations who’ve played soccer all their lives.

Thus, "no matter what you did during your season, it doesn’t matter unless you can bring it against Okinawa," Collier said.

For his part, Kubasaki’s boys coach Chris Kelly feels such things "run in cycles. Okinawa has been on a good run, an up cycle and fortunate to get some excellent talent and been able to maintain a high level."

The past, Kelly insists, gets set aside once everybody hits the pitch. "Everybody has an equal chance" when the Far East tournament starts Monday, the boys at Seoul American, the girls at Kubasaki. "It’s about how you do that week."

Kubasaki brought a 4-10 record into last year’s Far East tournament and ran the table, winning all eight Class AA matches. "You could have any team make a run at the title, have a hot streak for one week," Kelly said.

Where the girls are concerned, Dragons coach Terry Chumley says she has noted a change in the wind. Not only did ASIJ finally reach up and grab the yardstick last year, the Mustangs reached the 2006 final and teams like Nile C. Kinnick (2007) and Guam High (2003) enjoyed similar runs.

"The teams are closer in skill and ability than they’ve been in past years," Chumley said. "All the teams are very solid competition. It’s a tossup — who comes to play Far East week and who sticks to their plan."