Weekend Rusher (State Quarterfinals)

Playoff Predictions
6A
What To Watch In the East
In the East, the state quarterfinals have set up exactly the same way as last year: Lawrence Free State (8-2) at Olathe North (10-0) and BV Northwest (9-1) at Blue Valley Stilwell (4-6). Exact same match-ups.

Stilwell and BV Northwest just find themselves in opposite positions from last year. At 9-1, Stillwell travelled to 3-7 BV Northwest, which was coming off an upset of undefeated SM West. This year, Stilwell is coming off an upset of 8-1 SM West, 42-18, and hosting BV Northwest. Stilwell hosted BV Northwest Week 2 of the regular season and gave up three first-quarter touchdowns before losing 34-15.

Free State upset Olathe North 10-6 last year, but I don't see it happening this year. North is a clear favorite to win the 6A title.

Stilwell, though, I cannot figure out. They returned a quarterback in Anthony Abenoja (over 3,300 passing yards last season) and four offensive linemen but ended up having an utterly disappointing season, going 1-6 before winning their final two district games. The defense isn't very good, but the offense seems to have hit its stride in the last four weeks. Coach Steve Rampy, a four-time state champ at Blue Valley, is a veteran of the playoffs. I think Blue Valley Stilwell pulls off an upset here, and a sub-state match-up against undefeated Olathe North would be a showdown. North beat Stilwell 49-35 in the opening week of district play. If I'm Olathe North, I don't want to play Stilwell again.

Blue Valley Stilwell has not had a break on the schedule this season.

Manhattan 23, Blue Valley 21
BV NW 34, Blue Valley 15
Salina Central 31, Blue Valley 28
Blue Valley 34, BV North 13
Miege 42, Blue Valley 28
Aquinas 20, Blue Valley 19
Olathe North 49, Blue Valley 35
Blue Valley 42, Olathe South 14
Blue Valley 42, BV West 21

They're battle-tested.

Stilwell, by the way, provides my rationale for why I think the East is better than the West in Class 6A this season. Blue Valley Stilwell opened the season at Manhattan. Manhattan, now the undefeated No. 1 seed in the Western half of the playoffs, needed a touchdown on the final play of the game to defeat Stilwell 23-21. (Manhattan, though, is charmed this season. They defeated Emporia and Junction City on the final play, as well, which reminds me: Watch out for Emporia, Carroll.)

How The West Will Be Won
Wichita Heights (6-4) has a chance at No. 1 Manhattan (10-0) this Friday, but I don't see it happening. It's not because Manhattan is so dominant this year; they're not. They just as easily could have entered the playoffs at 6-3, rather than 9-0. I really don't think they're much better than Heights.

Heights just doesn't have a track record in the northeastern part of the state, which gives me no reason to pick them.

In 2007 district play, Heights dropped its final two games at Junction City (14-26) and at Manhattan (10-15).

Then in 2008, last season, an absolutely outstanding 9-1 Heights team coming off home drubbings on Derby and Dodge City travelled to 10-0 Junction City and didn't play their best game, losing 21-13.

I just can't see Heights traveling to Manhattan and winning.

This is going to sound ridiculous, but losing 27-0 to Heights in the final week of the season was the best thing that could have possibly happened for Derby football in terms of this month's 6A playoffs. As much as Heights owns Derby, Derby owns Northwest. While an excellent Derby team last year had a second-half score fest at home against Northwest in the state quarterfinals to win 55-14, an above average Derby team still totally controlled their first-round game at Northwest Friday.

Two conclusions: Heights knows how to prepare for Derby. Derby knows how to prepare for Northwest.

There was really never any doubt about the result after the first drive of the game for Derby, which they didn't even score on. Jameson Moore rushed for over 50 yards on the opening drive, busting for runs of 29, 9 and 13 yards. And even though Northwest stopped him at the goal line on fourth down, there was just a feeling that the Grizzlies didn't stand a chance. Morale was not good on the sideline from the start.

Derby partially blocked the punt after Northwest couldn't get a first down driving from their own goal line, then casually marched into the end zone, wrapping up the drive with a two-yard Tyler Harrison-Devin Hedgepeth hook-up.

Derby put the nail in the coffin at the end of the first half, though a Northwest bout with bad luck provided them the nail.

After an ineffective start at running back by the injured Demarcus Robinson, Northwest back-up back Andrew Etheridge took over and broke for two incredible runs in the second quarter. Down 21-0, he scored a touchdown on a run of 53 yards with 3:18 remaining in the half. The state runner-up hurdler leapt over the line and sprinted out to the corner and left everyone behind.

Just 1:28 later, Etheridge did it again. He broke for 66 yards, busting outside before cutting up field at the line. He was dragged down inside the red zone, barely, which turned out to be key.

That proved to be a huge play, as Northwest could not put together an effective drive outside of Etheridge's huge breaks. Northwest missed a field goal off the left upright into a nasty headwind.

Derby got the ball back, and with less than a minute remaining, Harrison connected downfield for 34 yards, and Moore had runs of 17 and 13 yards. Then Mason Young kicked a 37-yard field goal through the middle of the uprights.

If Etheridge hadn't gotten caught on the 66-yard run and instead had scored, Northwest could have trailed 21-14 at the half after being down 21-0 in the half's closing minutes. Derby instead built a 24-7 lead, with some excellent play calling on the final drive, running the ball when Northwest expected the pass.

Moore was very effective past the line of scrimmage. The Derby offensive line cleared gigantic gaps for him.

Northwest was the perfect match-up for Derby in the first round.

Now they host 8-2 Dodge City, coming off a first-round win over Topeka. Dodge lost to Great Bend and Hays mid-season.

See my point?

Derby could not have gotten a more beneficial draw. After traveling just 18 miles for their opening away game at Northwest, they now host a very beatable Dodge City team in the state quarterfinals.

Then, if they do beat Dodge, they would host No. 1 Manhattan for sub-state.

Derby can make the state title game.

Wow.

5A
What To Watch In the East
Gardner-Edgerton (10-0) will pound Topeka Seaman (6-4) and Aquinas (9-1) will oust Shawnee Heights (4-6) in the state quarterfinals. There's no doubt to be had in these games.

I'll write more next week on the Gardner-Aquinas sub-state match-up, which promises to be another excellent ballgame. The last three match-ups have been decided by 6, 5 and 2 points.

But...

(Drum roll, please) How the West Will Be Won
Hopefully, it will be won on Nov. 20 by either Hutch or Carroll, because that is the match-up that everyone in Wichita and Hutchinson wants to see. Hutch (10-0) rolled Liberal, and Carroll (10-0) routed Newton to set up state quarterfinal games both should win.

Hutch won at Salina South 41-6 in Week 2. They will do so again at South.

Emporia, however, is the best-kept secret in Kansas football the last three years. In the past three years, they have quality wins over programs like Manhattan, Junction City, Hayden, the Salina schools and now McPherson.

Many saw Emporia's 35-33 home win over McPherson on Friday as a huge upset. It was an upset, in my opinion, but I thought the game's deficit would be no larger than a score.

I spoke with Emporia coach Bill Lowe at the beginning of the season about his program, which had been hovering above .500 for three seasons since going 1-8 in 2005 in his first season with the program.

Lowe has built Emporia into a playoff program the hard way. In 2006-7, Emporia had Junction City, Manhattan and Wichita Heights in their 6A district. In the past two seasons, having dropped to 5A, they've been grouped with Salina Central and Salina South. They lost a close 31-28 game to Central last year before being handled by South. This year, after losing regular season games to Junction and Manhattan (Manhattan on the final play of the game), they swept through their district, beating Central at home and South on the road.

Emporia will be a force to be reckoned with. Carroll has to get off to a better start this week defensively, after allowing 21 points to Newton in the first half last Friday. They will not be able to toy with Emporia.

More on Carroll-Hutch to come next week. Hopefully, if only for the sake of sportswriting.

4A
What To Watch In the East
I'm on the Miege bandwagon, have been since Week 2 or 3. I'm staying on. They trounced an undefeated Holton team 38-14 in the second round Friday. Miege played 5A and 6A teams all year before district play and more than held their own. They will be tested at Louisburg this Friday, then they're shoe-ins for state.

How the West Will Be Won
I would say Rose Hill (10-1) at Buhler (10-1) is a whale of a ballgame, and it is in a way, but the winner is just going to have to deal with Andale at sub-state, a team neither put together a good enough effort against during the regular season. So while this game is extremely intriguing, I wonder how much it really means in the wider scheme of the 4A playoffs.

I cannot get over the fact Buhler is completely dominating everyone they play, with the exception of Andale, which handled them. I just can't figure it out. I can understand Andale beating Buhler, but by 13 after building a 21-0 lead? Andale is becoming legendary, especially after supplanting Wellington once again. Wellington used to rule this area of 4A with an iron first. Their reign is offically over.

Incredibly, Buhler's 64-26 win over previously undefeated Hugoton was predictable. The western half of the state just hasn't been able to compete on the state level in recent years. Buhler led 43-14 at halftime. I still believe in this team. How can I not? They're unstoppable, as long as they're not playing Andale. I feel like I would have a better hold on how good Buhler is if they had played Wellington or Rose Hill during the regular season.

Meanwhile, Rose Hill, which played Andale tougher than Buhler in a 26-15 loss earlier this season, beat Abilene 24-8 at home Saturday to earn the quarterfinal berth at Buhler.

Buhler won at Abilene 56-13 in Week 2.

I'm telling you, I can't figure it out. Buhler is incredible on offense this season. Rose Hill, however, will be the second-most physical team Buhler has played this season. That certainly means something for this game.

Andale, meanwhile, is in the driver's seat. They host Hayden, which they lost to 20-12 at home in sub-state last year, but which they beat 29-28 at Hayden in 2007 on a last-second field goal. Hayden is a four-loss team this year, and even though they're quality losses to teams like Manhattan and Emporia, Andale is going to win this game going away.

Then, they'll play Buhler or Rose Hill, programs they have dominated in recent years. Overall, I'm not sure how interested I should be in Class 4A. It's Andale all over again, isn't it?

3A
What To Watch In the East
Silver Lake has won the Eastern half of the Class 3A bracket seven seasons running. Seven!

In possibly the state's most-intriguing quarterfinal match-up on Friday, Silver Lake (11-0), which seems to have not lost a regular season game since we landed on the moon, hosts Marysville (10-1), which has one loss to Abilene, which lost only two games this season before bowing out of 4A to Rose Hill last Saturday.

Marysville has always been good at football. Buhler coach Steve Warner put together a very strong record there throughout the 90s and early 2000s, competing in 4A. But Silver Lake is just it in the 3A East.

This will be a battle, and for most of the season, I have been on the Marysville bandwagon. I'm staying. I just feel a change is needed. They've pounded everyone outside of the touchdown loss to Abilene. On Saturday they won 42-6 over previously undefeated Pleasant Ridge, which had won its first-round game 76-0 over a 6-3 Council Grove team.

I had Marysville winning the state title early in the season, and now that Conway Springs...

How the West Will Be Won
Shocking to me the Emporia win over McPherson was not. The Trinity Catholic win over Conway Springs, however, was.

Hutch Trinity actually controlled this thing early. Conway got within a score before halftime, then led late, until Trinity converted a 4th down and 30, or something unattainable like that, and won the ball game on that play.

Now come the tough, tough state quarterfinals. This is when playoff football gets rough and tumble. This is when teams either show up or get beaten badly.

It doesn't get any tougher than traveling to Norton, which is northwest of Hays, just south of the Nebraska border. Ask Smith Center, which has escaped from Norton with its winning streak intact the past several years.

Norton is where Trinity travels for the state quarterfinals.

As difficult as that trip will be for Trinity, Collegiate receives its third straight home playoff game on the other side of the Western half of the 3A bracket. Granted, they host Scott City, which since mid-season I have had a hunch could win the state title. It's a good thing Collegiate hosts, because I would not wish that trip to Scott City on anyone.

Scott City beat Norton 14-6 in district play, a knock-down, drag-out battle. They are physical football teams, while Trinity and Collegiate both are passing teams with plenty of basketball talent on the football field, scoring points in bunches.

Class 3A sub-state is fascinating. Will two stalwart, tradition-rich western Kansas, small-town football teams win this Friday, or will two private schools who battled it out in the state basketball semifinals last winter earn the right to meet in the football semifinals?

Nice note: Trinity and Collegiate were both 24-0 when they met in the state basketball semis last year. They would both be 12-0 if they were to meet next Friday in the state football semis. Weird.

It must kind of feel like the 1980s in western Kansas, except the towns are smaller. Norton won Class 4A state titles in 1985 and 1986, also making a state title game appearance in 1983. Scott City then won Class 4A titles in 1988, 1990 and 1991. The year they didn't make state in 1989, Norton made the state final game that year.

During this time period in which small towns in Kansas are shrinking and suffering in this economy more than ever, I'm sort of rooting for Scott City and Norton. Thinking about these teams, I can just sense the mystique. They make me curious about a time I only knew as a young, young child. Nostalgia is the best experience there is, and never is it stronger than when thinking about childhood.

State Championship Game Predictions
6A: Olathe North 34, Derby 21. I picked Derby to be in the state title game after Week 3, but then reneged after the Hutch loss. Big mistake. Hutch has made a lot of teams look worse than they are. Class 6A certainly has been a wild ride, and I expect no less this week. I think a 5-6 Blue Valley Stilwell football team will compete for a spot in the state title game against Olathe North in two weeks.
5A: Hutchinson 49, Gardner-Edgerton 21. Like I said, I want to see Carroll-Hutch in two weeks. There's no way I'm not sticking to my guns, though.
4A: Buhler 35, Bishop Miege 28: I'm stubborn.
3A: Collegiate 41, Marysville 35. I agree with Collegiate coach Bill Messamore. The spread offense is unfamiliar territory for 3A defenses. And Collegiate's defense is excellent. Defensive coach Troy Black has got that defense on the same page each week. I really don't think it will be that close (6).