Weekend Rusher (State Playoffs)

Playoff Predictions
The first-round games for the top seeds in Class 6A and 5A are fodder for more argument against the current playoff system. Undefeated Manhattan hosts 3-6 Maize; Undefeated Hutchinson hosts 3-6 Liberal. The playoffs as they are certainly do not hit the ground running. If there were half as many teams, they certainly would. Imagine if we were watching state quarterfinal games this Friday. There would be insane intensity all week. Instead, we slowly gain momentum each week. Very NBA-like.

That said, these first-round match-ups in the West have intriguing elements:

South and Heights have already played. I'm shocked South won that Week 6 match-up. Cory Brack is a very good coach. I have Heights winning this time going away, though. But, as I said before, I wish this Friday was the state quarterfinal, because Heights' potential game next Friday is tantalizing, if not totally unfair. Potentially 6-4 Heights, as the more western school of the two, will host potentially 10-0 No. 1 seed Manhattan for a shot at sub-state. Does that make sense to anyone? Heights season is far from over.

Topeka travels to Dodge City for their first-round game. Wow. I'm surprised that the state association hasn't passed a law disallowing such travel during these economic times. Poor Topeka. I wonder how many kids on that team have ever been to Dodge City. First and last time, probably.

Ask me a week ago who wins a Derby at Northwest playoff match-up, and I don't even give you a winner. Instead, I scold you for not understanding how the playoffs are structured, because there's no way two district winners can meet in the first round. (Then again, who does know how the playoffs in 6A and 5A are structured?) But, wow, Heights destroyed Derby 27-0, and now the Panthers are left searching for answers going to Northwest this Friday. Northwest has to be favored in this game, no matter the fact that Derby crushed them in last year's quarterfinals, just because Derby's offense, already a shadow of last year's, competely stalled against Heights. Still, I'm going with Derby. Heights has Derby's number; they whipped them last year, too, then Derby went on a playoff run. I'm going to disregard that game. Speaking of teams having numbers, I think Derby will show they have Northwest's number.

Kapaun is rolling behind running back Dyllon Knox ever since losing a heartbreaker to Carroll 36-34 in Week 6. Out of all the 5A and 6A games, Salina South at Kapaun is probably my favorite match-up. South has had a roller coaster season, getting a new head coach in Sam Sellers after Week 3. Kapaun is playing with great confidence, and from what I saw of them against Carroll, they play very hard and have just enough athletes. Kapaun should have beaten Carroll. Ark Valley Chisholm Trail teams and eventual sub-state finalists McPherson (2008) and Salina Central (2007) have ousted Kapaun from the first round the past two years at home. Now, it's Salina South. I think Kapaun finally breaks through.

If that's not the best game in 5A for the first round, then 8-1 McPherson at 7-2 Emporia is. Emporia has two losses, to Junction City and Manhattan. McPherson lost to Hutch. These are two very good football teams. Emporia made it through the district gauntlet of Salina South and Salina Central unscathed. McPherson may be the second-best team in the state. But it's at Emporia.

It's hard to find anything interesting in the first round of the 4A playoffs, so I'm going to jump to potential match-ups in the second round on Saturday.

Tough draw for Andover High. While Topeka Hayden has not had an especially stellar season, losing to Abilene in district play, they are battle-tested coming out of the Centennial League, full of 6A and 5A teams. If Andover beats Andover Central Tuesday, they travel to Hayden, assuming they win, because Hayden starts out on the road. Tough, tough draw.

It looks like Andale will be traveling to Wellington on Saturday. Andale has completely owned Wellington in recent years. However, Wellington trailed just 7-0 going into the fourth quarter at Andale in Week 4 before continuing to turn the ball over and losing 21-0. Wellington sort of petered out after that game, but they swept through a weak district to gain some momentum. I will pay attention to this game.

Hugoton (9-0) at Buhler (8-1) should be a blockbuster of smash-mouth football. None of the 50-point wins matter anymore for Buhler. That won't be happening again any time soon.

State Championship Game Predictions
6A: Manhattan 21, Olathe North 14

I really don't have any confidence in this prediction, but both of these teams deserve respect for going undefeated against difficult schedules. Manhattan won many close games this season, including a last-second win over defending 6A champ and chief rival Junction City 9-7 on Friday. They also had close victories over Blue Valley and Emporia. Manhattan has had a knack for winning close football games under first-year coach Joe Schartz. Derek Campbell is one of the state's top backs, and 10 starters returned on offense this season from last. Manhattan has lost its share of state title games over the years. Not this year. They win their first since 1988.

5A: Hutchinson 49, Gardner-Edgerton 21

Some reports out of the northeast cast Gardner as a powerhouse already. No so. They have beaten up on the Frontier League, full of Class 4A teams, for two years and competed in a weak 5A East playoff bracket. Last year they couldn't score on Aquinas, the only quality opponent on the schedule, losing to them twice, then Hutch exposed Aquinas as a pretty soft football team in the state final. Gardner eked out a 28-26 win over Aquinas in district play this season, and Aquinas is a shadow of last year's team. I just don't buy into Gardner being ready to win a title, certainly not over Hutch. Gardner is still a year away. Their stud quarterback Bubba Starling is just a junior, and they'll be battle-tested next year coming out of the Eastern Kansas League, which they'll join in 2010.

4A: Buhler 42, Bishop Miege 28

Call me crazy. I'm going back to what was my 4A pick all along. I backed off Buhler for good reason after Andale put them in their place in Week 7, 41-28. What is expected? Andale will win its third state title in four seasons, the first to do so in Class 4A since Scott City (1988-91). It would be a dynastic, no, epic achievement. In terms of historical achievement over time, it would put Andale as a program in league with Wellington, the area's greatest 4A football program. But I'm going with Buhler, for three reasons: 1) Vype cover karma is gaining steam, after first being worried about an SI-like curse. September cover subject Mackenzie Maki, Kapaun cross country champ, was defeated handily early in the season by a freshman from Carroll. Having just proclaimed Maki as on her way to becoming the best in Kansas, it was shocking to see Maki lose by so many seconds. However, Maki built on her performances all season and ended up winning state for the second consecutive season, going away. It's a very unusual thing in cross country for one individual's times to swing that drastically. Maki is truly a great runner. Buhler, the October cover subject, will complete this same cycle of rise, fall, rise; 2) Buhler will not come out throwing the ball next time they play Andale. They will successfully run the football; 3) If Buhler is to receive a second shot at Andale, they'll have to make a run through a gamut of tough competition: First Round, at 7-2 Colby; Second Round, likely at home against  then 10-0 Hugoton; State Quarterfinal, likely at home against then 10-1 Rose Hill. One knock on Buhler is that they're not as battle-tested as Andale. Coming off those three games, they'll either be battle-tested out the yin-yang or in street clothes watching the playoffs.

3A: Conway Springs 33, Marysville 20

Conway Springs is a lock for sub-state. I don't think they even get challenged before then. The other half of the western bracket is another story. Garden Plain at Collegiate on Tuesday is going to be a classic. We all know what happened in 2007 district play: Garden Plain pummeled Collegiate 63-0. Collegiate lacked players at the skill positions that year and were small on the line, as they always are. So, they are again small on the line, but they arguably have the best group of skill players in the city of Wichita. Seriously. The key here is how effectively Collegiate quarterback Blake Jablonski eludes the pass rush. Garden Plain will score points and kill clock; Collegiate will just have to keep up. Thing is, I think they can keep up. But even after this game, this winner is likely going to make it to the state quarterfinals where they'll meet up with undefeated Scott City. Scott City should have beaten Garden Plain last season, but the Owls pulled some incredible late-game heroics to escape with a win. Conway will be locked, loaded and rested for whichever of these three they play at sub-state. Conway can win its seventh title in 12 seasons this year -- simply incredible. Very Lawrence-like to achieve that much success over that long a period. Marysville is very good, too, though, not to mention Silver Lake on the East side, as well. Class 3A is very deep this season.